Prices of Notes Going Up? 1 1

[Fenntucky Mike]

I know this a bit of a tired subject in regards to other collectables but I only bring this up because I was just destroyed in an auction today for some U.S. scrip but in my other major collecting area, Ukrainian banknotes, I haven't really noticed any significant prices increases as of yet. Nor have I noticed increases in Michigan Nationals for the most part.

This is the piece, the same note, condition, date and signatures could be had for significantly less within the last year. I'm going to chalk it up as an anomaly at this point. Anyone seeing price increases in other areas?

[Revenant]

The price on everything is going up... assuming you can get it at all. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

8 hours ago, Revenant said:

The price on everything is going up... assuming you can get it at all. 

True that.

In general I'm not really seeing any increases in most notes I've purchased the last year compared to the previous. There will be to occasional battle over a high grade, 68 - 69, but beyond that nothing earth shattering. The note in the OP I'm going to chalk up as an anomaly, I have two of those notes and they were both under $50 a piece, one I purchased roughly 6 months ago. When a note that typically goes for around $50 sells for almost $200 your mouth tends to drop. I guess I'm just wondering if banknotes are late to the game and if we will see significant price increases similar to other collecting sectors. Hmmm, that's what I should have said in the OP. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

Still getting crushed at auctions, and not by just a little, some 3 - 4 times for what the same notes sold for a year ago. Graded notes seem to be seeing the biggest price jumps.  This seems to be more of a U.S. thing, at least in my areas of interest, there is still deals to be had but they are all from overseas sellers/auction houses, I haven't bought anything from a U.S. seller/auction house in a long time. I'll have more of my auction misses later.

On a positive note I was able to acquire an IoM coin at a U.K. auction at a VERY reasonable price last week. I had bid on an identical coin late last year which was in not as good of condition and did not have the OGP. The coin last year went for twice the amount I paid for mine this year.  I'm pretty confident that the same thing will happen with the banknotes that I've been outbid on, just have to bide my time and wait it out.

[Gnat]

Overall, prices are at all time highs, particularly for scarce, rare or high grade material.

The pandemic collecting surge, new collectors with deep pockets and long term collections coming to market have all fueled this.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:27 PM, Gnat said:

Overall, prices are at all time highs, particularly for scarce, rare or high grade material.

The pandemic collecting surge, new collectors with deep pockets and long term collections coming to market have all fueled this.

Definitely a good time to sell!

Have any of your notes hit the auction block yet, any gone live?

[Gnat]

On 10/4/2021 at 10:11 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Definitely a good time to sell!

Have any of your notes hit the auction block yet, any gone live?

The first group of notes will be in Stack's November Baltimore Sale, and probably won't be up on their website until later in October. The remaining notes will appear in the December, January & February Collectors Choice sales. I did see that Stack's has sent out a few email blast that feature notes from the collection.

[Pounds]

Interesting. I have seen a general rise in prices for banknotes that I collect: Ireland and Northern Ireland. There have been several sales in DNW, London recently in which the trend is generally upward in better grade items and rarities. The most recent DNW sale included some early Irish notes in the period 1905-1927, which were both rare and or in good grade (VF or better). The Lots were heavily contested, and prices realised for these were very strong, at several times estimate. It should be added that these notes had not been seen on the market for rather a long time, and some were the best known examples of issues where only two or three example were known. Rarity and nice grade are a good combination.

 

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/9/2021 at 4:52 PM, Pounds said:

Interesting. I have seen a general rise in prices for banknotes that I collect: Ireland and Northern Ireland. There have been several sales in DNW, London recently in which the trend is generally upward in better grade items and rarities. The most recent DNW sale included some early Irish notes in the period 1905-1927, which were both rare and or in good grade (VF or better). The Lots were heavily contested, and prices realised for these were very strong, at several times estimate. It should be added that these notes had not been seen on the market for rather a long time, and some were the best known examples of issues where only two or three example were known. Rarity and nice grade are a good combination.

A slight or marginally steep upward trend in general does not surprise me, especially with notes as you described. High end or rare notes in an appropriate auction setting, meaning Irish notes sold at a London auction fetching strong prices doesn't surprise me as much now. What is surprising me now is the strong prices, multiples of the high estimate, that notes not region appropriate are getting. Ukrainian notes, which I collect, are selling for many times estimates here in the states, as well as other "foreign" notes. This is VERY unusual, in my experience. 

Welcome to the Forum by the way. 

[Pounds]

This has been happening to more recent Irish notes in UNC. An example is the 1996 Central Bank of Ireland £100, and £50 (1995-2001) which sell for a cutting edge price in quantity. There is a big market in Asia for strict UNC Irish notes [four sharp original corners, no counting crease, a 68-70], and probably for those of other countries also. Lower denominations of recent Irish notes are also doing very well in UNC.

[Pounds]

And, getting the notes graded, they usually weigh in at 68, will tend to push the prices even higher!

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/9/2021 at 5:29 PM, Pounds said:

This has been happening to more recent Irish notes in UNC. An example is the 1996 Central Bank of Ireland £100, and £50 (1995-2001) which sell for a cutting edge price in quantity. There is a big market in Asia for strict UNC Irish notes [four sharp original corners, no counting crease, a 68-70], and probably for those of other countries also. Lower denominations of recent Irish notes are also doing very well in UNC.

Not super surprising as Asia is crazy for banknotes, but it was my assumption that the Asian market was only interested in "foreign" notes if the serial numbers were fancy or lucky. That an overall demand for high quality notes, serial numbers not withstanding, is a little more surprising, to me anyway, but I don't really pay attention to what's going on over there. Maybe I should!

On 11/10/2021 at 1:50 PM, Pounds said:

And, getting the notes graded, they usually weigh in at 68, will tend to push the prices even higher!

I wonder how long before an influx of modern high graded notes, 68 or above, will soften the markets?  It has already happened to some notes in areas I collect but I do tend to tread where others don't. Going strictly by the PMG population reports Ireland has 5X the notes graded when compared to Ukraine. I suppose there is a strong UK/Irish connection to the Asian market, historically, particularly Hong Kong based banks and Irish notes will probably continue to see strong prices realized.

[Pounds]

One of the things about Republic of Ireland notes is that they are relatively scarce in grade 66-68. The issues stopped in 2001 when the country joined the Euro. £50 and £100 were relatively large denomination notes, and while £50 notes were circulated through cash machines, the £100 denomination was not. The only way to obtain £100 notes in UNC was to to them from a bank.

Imho, the PMG populations of Republic of Ireland notes are not a reflection of what is out there, very few Irish notes have been graded, relatively speaking - few Irish collectors go for it, and just dealers who trade abroad seem to submit notes fro grading, from looking at notes at shows.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/14/2021 at 8:55 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Still getting crushed at auctions, and not by just a little, some 3 - 4 times for what the same notes sold for a year ago. Graded notes seem to be seeing the biggest price jumps.  This seems to be more of a U.S. thing, at least in my areas of interest, there is still deals to be had but they are all from overseas sellers/auction houses,

What specific U.S. notes are you seeing the 2-4 fold boost in prices ?  What specific bills...and what price range ?

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 2/25/2022 at 8:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What specific U.S. notes are you seeing the 2-4 fold boost in prices ?  What specific bills...and what price range ?

Most of the U.S. notes I was bidding on were obsoletes/scrip, specifically The Bank of Allegan (MI) $2, $3 & $5,  The Bank of Singapore (MI) $2, $3 & $5, The First Sand Bank of South Haven (MI) $20 and The First NB of Allegan (MI) $10 brown back to name a few. These are not mainstream notes, other than the brown back, from highly collected areas but I would expect similar increases across the board with U.S. notes. It's been across the board for me in everything I collect at any rate.  I mainly collect world notes, specializing in Ukrainian and Eastern Bloc countries, my U.S. note collecting is VERY narrow but I do keep an eye on all U.S. notes in general because I'll eventually expand my U.S. note collecting and that's what most people want to talk about or have questions about.

[GoldFinger1969]

There was a story in the Currency CDN newsletter like a year ago that talked about the big bump up in lower and medium-graded Large Denomination Bills that newcomers and others with Covid checks had been chasing.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 2/26/2022 at 10:55 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

There was a story in the Currency CDN newsletter like a year ago that talked about the big bump up in lower and medium-graded Large Denomination Bills that newcomers and others with Covid checks had been chasing.

That's what I've seen. LD notes are a borderline novelty with collectors/new collectors, while not in the same vein as errors, fancy numbers or star notes they are similar in that the LD's seem to be notes that, let's say, a coin collector might want to get as the only note in their collection or someone might want as a show and tell piece or status symbol. 

[GoldFinger1969]

I posted the newsletter front page somewhere on these forums, Mike.  Here it is again:

Edited February 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 2/26/2022 at 4:43 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I posted the newsletter front page somewhere on these forums, Mike.  Here it is again:

Do you have a membership to greysheet and is it worth it? It's one of those publications I've never signed up for, mainly because it's U.S. centric.

I went back and took the sales of Fr. 2202 ($500, 1934A) in 2019 and sales so far this year over at HA. I only used Chicago notes (G), graded by PMG, and calculated the increase between identical grades from 2019 to 2022. There were four grades that crossed, comprising 16 notes (six 2022 notes and ten 2019 notes), the average increase was 91.37%. A very specific sample and doesn't tell the story of all LD notes but . I may go through the 2020 and 2021 notes to chart this out a little, the article is from 2021, I wonder if there has been a slide since then. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 2/26/2022 at 6:12 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Do you have a membership to greysheet and is it worth it? It's one of those publications I've never signed up for, mainly because it's U.S. centric.

I don't, I just got that one from somewhere.  Only got the front page and maybe the end of the article.

If I was more active in currency and had the $$$ I'd probably get a subscription.  Might get a few at $15 a month, just to give it a shot.  This story was definitely of interest and easy to read.

[PedroIlioni]

Compani Snai sempre duramente per fornire ai nostri clienti  https://casinosnai.org/ prezzi competitivi ed equi per le nostre offerte di banconote. Teniamo d'occhio le tendenze del mercato e adattiamo i nostri prezzi di conseguenza per rimanere competitivi. Se avete ulteriori domande o dubbi sulle nostre politiche di prezzo, non esitate a contattarci direttamente in modo che possiamo aiutarvi a risolverli.

[GoldFinger1969]

Mike, you're more active than me on bills.....how has pricing been the last year or so ?  Has it leveled off or are you still seeing "dumb money" coming in and bidding up lower-priced stuff ?

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/13/2024 at 12:14 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Mike, you're more active than me on bills.....how has pricing been the last year or so ?  Has it leveled off or are you still seeing "dumb money" coming in and bidding up lower-priced stuff ?

Leveled off.

The sky is not falling but most notes that I pay attention to are going for around auction estimates, little above, little below. Not a lot of screaming deals, not a lot of me scratching my head wondering why a note sold for multiples of what I've seen them go for in the past. 

Lots of notes sitting unsold for BIN prices.

I wouldn't call it a buyers market just yet, seems more that prices are "stabilizing".  The new norm....

[GoldFinger1969]

I see prices all over the place and bills going without bids...BINs getting no activity....on Ebay.    I'm looking to buy a few star SC's for Christmas presents.

You really have to do your research there because what can appear to be a ridiculous price COULD be ridiculous or it could a reasponable ask (if a bit high) but have some weird esoteric block number that is somewhat valuable.  Low SN's and ultra-high grades are self-apparent.

Edited December 16, 2024 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Saw a March Greensheet that said that more dealers are handling BOTH U.S. and world currency....lots more people are into foreign bills, etc.

It mentioned a sale of Costa Rican (!) notes and one went for $48,000 !!!!   Not sure if it was someone from Costa Rica or another country but clearly someone wants a country's notes that is not famous for world or global finance like the U.S.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/29/2024 at 9:50 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Saw a March Greensheet that said that more dealers are handling BOTH U.S. and world currency....lots more people are into foreign bills, etc.

People priced out of coins and anything to do with U.S. numismatics.? My assumption at any rate.

From where I'm sitting the popularity of world notes continues to climb, more so than any other sector of numismatics besides ancients perhaps. TPG world notes seem to be continuing to grow in popularity as well, I know PMG has offices world wide and grades notes in China as well as Florida, maybe a third location as well, I don't remember. I know everyone likes to complain about turnaround times here but PMG is pumping out a ton of notes onto the market and many seem to be coming from sellers overseas, particularly China. How many of these freshly graded world notes are coming from their China office is hard to say but I suspect quite a few.

On 12/29/2024 at 9:50 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It mentioned a sale of Costa Rican (!) notes and one went for $48,000 !!!!   Not sure if it was someone from Costa Rica or another country but clearly someone wants a country's notes that is not famous for world or global finance like the U.S.

Every country has "trophy" notes and collectors, whales, who will pay a handsome sum for them. I would have to guess that the Costa Rican note you are referencing was some type of rarity, now imagine what the U.S. equivalent would sell for, my guess is that you'd better tack on a few more zeros. At least one possibly. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 9/14/2021 at 8:55 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Still getting crushed at auctions, and not by just a little, some 3 - 4 times for what the same notes sold for a year ago. Graded notes seem to be seeing the biggest price jumps.  This seems to be more of a U.S. thing, at least in my areas of interest, there is still deals to be had but they are all from overseas sellers/auction houses, I haven't bought anything from a U.S. seller/auction house in a long time. I'll have more of my auction misses later.

Mike, have you checked the prices for those bills you got outbid by 3-4x ?  Are they flat or up since ?  Or have they corrected DOWNWARD by chance ? 

My guess is if the absolute price was low -- say, under $300 -- it probably has lots of potential bidders and never came back to that $100-range you saw earlier.  It's bubble pricing and spikes with high absolute dollar costs where you'll see the price come back to Earth as it is no longer 2 Dumb Bidders (to borrow a line from a famous NY Sportswiter) driving the price up. 

With lower-priced stuff...lots of bidders.  Cheaper to buy (which is why there are lots of bidders).  Price and volume elasticities. 

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 1/6/2025 at 1:57 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Mike, have you checked the prices for those bills you got outbid by 3-4x ?  Are they flat or up since ?  Or have they corrected DOWNWARD by chance ? 

I'd say that prices have flattened out, price trajectory seems to be curving slightly down but not in any meaningful way. Typical items I'm looking at are lets say sub $500, at the time pieces I would have expected to sell for under or around $300 went multiples higher. of course that was over three years ago now, those prices are now the norm. Yes, I'd say multiple bidders was a big factor, along with everyone being at home with COVID $$$, but not seeing a lot of the same material resurfacing or going back up for auction and prices holding at peaks, or close to them, for now.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/6/2025 at 6:18 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

I'd say that prices have flattened out, price trajectory seems to be curving slightly down but not in any meaningful way. Typical items I'm looking at are lets say sub $500, at the time pieces I would have expected to sell for under or around $300 went multiples higher. of course that was over three years ago now, those prices are now the norm. Yes, I'd say multiple bidders was a big factor, along with everyone being at home with COVID $$$, but not seeing a lot of the same material resurfacing or going back up for auction and prices holding at peaks, or close to them, for now.

So bottom line....some of those notes that you complained about have not even come back half-way to the price you saw them pre-Covid ?

All the "dumb money" has permanently raised the price level ?

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 1/6/2025 at 11:29 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

So bottom line....some of those notes that you complained about have not even come back half-way to the price you saw them pre-Covid ?

Prices have not come back or "corrected" from the Covid spike. Not sure they ever will at this point but things seem to be tightening up a little, what are we now 2-3 years post Covid peak? Might take another year or two be for people have to start selling off. The note market may have seen a double bump, first spike from everyone sitting at home with Covid money, second spike when people got priced out of other collectables and jumped to, or saw an opportunity in notes.?